Executive Summary
Top-line: 7.52% H1 GDP
Vietnam's economy demonstrates robust growth in 2025 with GDP expanding 7.96% in Q2 and 7.52% in the first half — the strongest H1 performance since 2011. Growth is led by services and manufacturing, supported by strong FDI inflows, low unemployment and controlled inflation. External risks from trade tensions and tariff policies remain.
Q2 2025 GDP (y/y)
7.96%
Source: GSO / aggregated
H1 2025 GDP (y/y)
7.52%
Highest mid-year since 2011
Key takeaways Click to expand
- Strong FDI: US$21.51 billion in H1 (up 32.6% y/y) — supporting manufacturing and exports.
- Inflation remains contained (May 3.24%; June 3.57%) within target range.
- Unemployment low at 2.20% in Q1, underpinning domestic consumption.
Key Indicators 2025
GDP Q1 2025 (y/y)
6.90%
Actual
GDP Q2 2025 (y/y)
7.96%
Actual
Inflation (Jun 2025)
3.57%
IMF: 2.9% • ADB: 4.0%
Unemployment (Q1 2025)
2.20%
Low level
FDI Registered (first 5 months)
$18.4B
Up 51% y/y
FDI Disbursed (first 5 months)
$8.9B
Banking sector earnings (2025 est.)
+17%
Credit growth supporting margins
Government GDP target 2025
8.3–8.5%
Ambitious vs intl forecasts
GDP Growth — Q1 (2020–2025)
Interactive: hover for values
Current Periods
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Q1, Q2, H1 comparison
Key indicators table
| Indicator | Value | Period | Source |
|---|
Sectoral Analysis
Services lead
Sector Contribution (est.)
Hover segments
Retail Performance
Retail sales in Q1 2025 reached 1.708 quadrillion VND (US$66.83B), up 9.9% y/y.
Year-on-year growth vs baseline
+9.9%
Q1 2025
Sector notes Expand for details
- Services: largest contributor to GDP, driven by domestic demand and tourism recovery.
- Manufacturing: strong export performance and FDI-supported capacity.
- Banking: projected earnings increase of ~17% due to credit growth and fee income recovery.
Challenges & Risk Factors
- Global trade tensions: Pressure on export volumes and supply chains.
- US tariff policies: Increased costs for export-oriented businesses.
- Geopolitical instability: Heightened uncertainty for investment.
- FDI concentration: Risks of overdependence and inflationary pressures.
- Macroeconomic stability: Need to balance growth with fiscal prudence.
Risk gauge
Overall risk level: Moderate
Suggested mitigation
- Diversify export markets
- Strengthen domestic demand & fiscal buffers
- Promote resilient supply chains
Historical Comparison
Q1 GDP Growth (2020–2025)
Interactive sparkline
2024 GDP: 7.1% • 2025 forecasts vary (World Bank 5.8%, ADB 6.6%, IMF 5.2%)
Outlook & Projections
Cautiously optimistic
Vietnam's economy started 2025 strongly but faces external headwinds. Domestic fundamentals—robust FDI, low unemployment and contained inflation—support a resilient near-term outlook. The government's 8%+ target is ambitious relative to international forecasts.
Supporting factors
- Robust FDI inflows
- Low unemployment supporting consumption
- Controlled inflation
Risk mitigation policies
- Diversify export markets
- Strengthen domestic demand
- Maintain macro stability and fiscal buffers
Projection scenarios Best/Worse/Base
| Scenario | GDP 2025 (est.) | Key driver |
|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | 8.3–8.5% | Strong domestic demand + FDI |
| Base | 6.0–7.0% | Moderate global growth |
| Pessimistic | 4.5–5.5% | Severe trade disruptions |
Sources & Citations
- Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate — https://tradingeconomics.com/vietnam/gdp-growth-annual
- International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile — https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/VNM
- World Economics - Vietnam GDP Estimates — https://www.worldeconomics.com/GDP/Vietnam.gdp
- Government of Vietnam - General Statistics Office — https://www.gso.gov.vn/en/
- Wikipedia - Economy of Vietnam — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Vietnam
- And others (ADB, FocusEconomics, Ministry of Planning and Investment, etc.)